Wildcat Watch End of Year Summary, 2022

 Well we’ve dodged the conflagration yet again!   This year was very similar to last year in that it was dominated by a lot of foggy cool days with winds from the west and early rain.  There were no red-flag days declared by NWS for the region. Our leadership team (myself, Annette McCoubrey & Catya de Neergaard) did come close to declaring a watch event in early November when the winds were strong and from the north but we decided not to proceed since a) there was no NWS red flag raised, b) we had gotten some substantial rain late in Oct, and c) air temperature was low and humidity reasonably high. 

 Unfortunately our good luck for the season was mitigated somewhat by the discovery in early November that the Vollmer fire camera no longer was focused on Wildcat Canyon.  ALERTCalifornia (formerly AlertWILDFIRE) has changed the camera such that it now rotates 360 deg every 2.5 min.  Our leadership team immediately contacted the operator of the camera, John Cornell, and we’ve had several extensive conversations with him.  The synopsis is that ALERTCalifornia is now running Artificial Intelligence (AI) on select cameras including the Volmer Peak top camera.  Their standard AI algorithm requires the camera to rotate.  

 As part of our discussions with John, he presented an overview of the improvements in ALERTCalifornia.  PG&E now has a 24/7 camera-surveillance team set up which includes up to 5 observers during red flag events.  While that may sound like a lot, keep in mind they may be tracking hundreds of cameras during a major red-flag event.  To improve the surveillance, ALERTCalifornia is using AI on some cameras.  If the AI detects a fire, it alerts the operators who then investigate further. 

 While it may be tempting to conclude that we no longer need Wildcat Watch, further questioning on our part revealed some apparent weaknesses in these upgrades, at least for our particular situation in the Hills.  Recall that fire experts have told us that if a fire started in the Canyon during a Diablo wind event, it could reach the ridge line in minutes.  This coupled with the fact that our narrow streets will impede evacuation, means delays of a few minutes in detecting a fire could result in significant loss.

 The main problem with the new AI system for our purposes is that it only gets a view of our Canyon every 2.5 min.  At best it needs “several” views before it can detect a fire.  John could not tell us how many views would be needed and there are apparently no published reports which might provide us more insight.   It seems likely that even in the best of circumstances, the upgraded ALERTCalifornia system will take a substantially longer time to make an initial fire sighting than a trained observer with a strong interest in protecting their family and neighbors.  John has basically agreed with this assessment and that is why he is pursuing the installation of new camera on Vollmer that will provide a continuous view of Wildcat Canyon.  If he doesn’t make progress by late winter, we’ll look at other options to persuade PG&E to install another camera. 

 Until next fire season, have a happy holiday and enjoy the rain!

 Cortis Cooper, Annette McCoubrey & Catherine de Neergaard